Tesla adds $45B (Waymo's entire valuation) in ONE DAY, Waymo starts road tests in NYC/Philly
Waymo launches teen program. Chinese AV firms go global.
👋 Welcome back,
This was an interesting week in the global autonomous vehicle market.
In the U.S., the robotaxi race between Waymo and Tesla is heating up, with both companies pushing into new territories—but with very different strategies. Meanwhile, Chinese players are expanding abroad, making big moves in Dubai and Europe. Europe also saw notable milestones in port logistics and airport transit automation.
All of this reflects a rapidly diversifying and increasingly global AV landscape.
⏱️ ~2,700 words, ~11 min read
🇺🇸 Robotaxi Reality Check — Waymo vs. Tesla in the U.S.
Waymo kicked off two new "road trips" this week to Philadelphia and New York City, signaling continued interest in expanding into complex Northeastern urban environments. These aren't vacation drives. They represent Waymo's methodical approach to conquering America's most challenging robotaxi markets.
It's important to understand that Waymo's road trips don't necessarily signal immediate commercial launches. The company has announced several other road trips this year to Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, San Diego, and San Antonio, and many of these exploratory missions haven't yet resulted in paying passenger services.
These road trips follow a well-established playbook: Waymo first sends a fleet of manually driven vehicles equipped with its AV sensor suite to map the area, followed by supervised autonomous testing, before analyzing the data to improve its Waymo Driver system. This approach has already led to commercial launches elsewhere, such as in Santa Monica. What starts as a road trip sometimes evolves into full-scale deployment.
For Philadelphia, Waymo plans to deploy vehicles in the city's most complex areas, including downtown and highway driving. The company will test across diverse neighborhoods from North Central to Eastwick, University City, and as far east as the Delaware River.
In NYC, Waymo plans to manually map routes in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, as well as Jersey City and Hoboken. It has applied for permits to test AVs with a safety driver, but local law still prohibits fully driverless operation. Waymo is actively lobbying to change that—but as we discussed in a prior edition, a commercial launch in NYC is still a long way off.
Alongside these expansion road trips, Waymo officially launched teen accounts in Phoenix—a move that could prove strategically significant. The teen service, available to 14-17 year olds, operates through accounts linked to adult family members. Teen customers receive priority access to Waymo's highest-tier customer support agents, parents can track rides in real-time and receive all receipts, and the company is exploring teen-specific features like karaoke mode for group rides.
Teen accounts are more than just a UX feature. The teen account initiative represents a sophisticated demographic play that could fundamentally expand the total addressable market.
Waymo's research revealed that today's teenagers show higher anxiety about traditional driving, greater comfort with surveillance and location tracking, and stronger preferences for avoiding stranger interactions—all factors that favor autonomous vehicles over traditional ride-sharing or personal car ownership.
If Waymo can capture this generation before they develop traditional car ownership habits, the economics could be transformative. Unlike occasional rideshare users who might hail a ride once or twice weekly, a carless teenager could become a daily customer, potentially creating usage patterns that are multiple times higher than current customer segments. This shift from episodic to routine usage could fundamentally alter the unit economics and could make the entire robotaxi business model significantly more lucrative.
While Waymo methodically executes its expansion strategy, Tesla made headlines this week with ambitious announcements that drove the company's stock up 4.7% in a single day—adding roughly $45 billion in market capitalization, equivalent to Waymo's most recent valuation.
The surge came after Elon Musk posted on X that Tesla would expand its Austin robotaxi service area "this weekend" and suggested Bay Area operations could begin "probably in a month or two, pending regulatory approvals."
Tesla's Austin expansion plans involve broadening the service area beyond the current limited South Austin deployment, though the company hasn't communicated these expansion plans to Austin city officials, who learned about the timeline through Musk's social media posts.
Beyond Austin, Tesla is pursuing multi-state expansion. The company contacted Arizona's Department of Transportation in June to begin certification for both testing and operating autonomous vehicles with and without drivers in the Phoenix metro area, with a decision expected by month's end. It’s a direct challenge to Waymo on its home turf.
Arizona's regulatory framework is relatively straightforward—companies follow a self-certification process for autonomous vehicle operations, and Tesla has applied for both testing with drivers and fully driverless operations. While Arizona also requires a Transportation Network Company permit for ride-hailing services, the overall regulatory burden is significantly lighter than in other states.
Tesla has also expressed interest in California's Bay Area, with Musk suggesting launches within "a month or two." However, Tesla's California ambitions face a dramatically more complex regulatory landscape. While Tesla has held a basic autonomous vehicle testing permit with safety drivers since 2014, the company has not applied for either driverless testing permits or deployment authorization, both required before offering any commercial robotaxi service.
California's multi-layered approval process requires separate permits from both the DMV (for testing with drivers, driverless testing, and deployment) and the California Public Utilities Commission (for ride-hailing operations). This creates a regulatory maze that Tesla must navigate before making good on Musk's timeline promises.
Early feedback from Tesla's Austin deployment has been surprisingly positive. Autonomy Markets hosts Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk spent three days testing Tesla's robotaxi service and came away "completely impressed." Their experience included "zero issues" across multiple rides, with Brulte noting the service "truly performed" and "completely exceeded my expectations."
Particularly striking was their observation that Tesla's vehicles seemed to learn during their stay, initially picking them up a block away from their hotel, but by day two successfully navigating into the hotel's complex valet area, something Waymo's vehicles in Austin hadn't accomplished. They also observed Tesla's smoother ride quality compared to Waymo.
However, as Brulte and Piecyk themselves acknowledged in their podcast, their observations over three days with "a lot of rides" are "not statistically significant." With Tesla operating roughly a dozen vehicles in a limited Austin area, it’s a small sample size compared to the hundreds of thousands of miles human drivers typically travel between serious incidents. The absence of major incidents during this early phase should be considered baseline performance rather than evidence of superior safety.
A more analytical perspective comes from Timothy B. Lee, who reviewed 78 Tesla robotaxi videos covering over 16 hours of driving. While Lee found Tesla's performance exceeded expectations with smooth, confident driving in rain, construction zones, and complex parking lots, he identified several concerning patterns. Tesla vehicles experienced phantom braking incidents, confusion at intersections (including one vehicle driving the wrong way in a left turn lane), and poor pull-over behavior that left passengers stranded in traffic lanes.
More fundamentally, Lee questions whether Tesla's human-like driving performance might actually involve significant remote human assistance, pointing to Tesla job postings describing teleoperation capabilities that could "remotely perform complex and intricate tasks."
The real test for Tesla will come with scaling. As the company expands in Austin and potentially launches in Phoenix or San Francisco, the fleet size will necessarily increase from dozens to hundreds of vehicles. With more vehicles covering more miles in more diverse conditions, the statistical likelihood of encountering edge cases and challenging scenarios will rise significantly. Whether the positive feedback remains consistent as Tesla scales beyond its current small, carefully managed deployment will be the critical measure of the technology's readiness.
My Take: Waymo is building sustainable competitive advantages through systematic market development and demographic capture. The teenager market represents a generational opportunity to establish robotaxis as the default transportation mode before traditional car ownership habits form—a strategy that could define the next decade of mobility.
Tesla's robotaxi launch is running better than many critics expected, which deserves acknowledgment. Yes, it's geofenced—the same limitation Tesla has long criticized Waymo for. Yes, there's a safety monitor onboard, and we don't know the extent of remote driving assistance. But the initial feedback is genuinely positive, even from analytical observers. The real question is scalability: as Tesla expands beyond its current dozen vehicles in a controlled Austin environment to hundreds of vehicles across multiple cities, will the technology maintain this performance?
🔗 Bloomberg (1) / Bloomberg (2) / WIRED / TechCrunch (1) / TechCrunch (2) / The Verge / Driverless Digest / Road to Autonomy / Understanding AI
🇨🇳 China's Global Robotaxi Push Accelerates
Chinese robotaxi players are demonstrating their serious international expansion ambitions this week, with multiple companies making strategic moves to establish footholds in key global markets while their US competitors remain largely focused on domestic scaling.
Pony.ai signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), marking what the company calls "a significant milestone in the global rollout of autonomous mobility solutions." The partnership goes far beyond a typical pilot program—it establishes Dubai as Pony.ai's official international launchpad with road testing beginning in 2025 and fully driverless commercial operations planned for 2026.
Under the agreement, Pony.ai will integrate its L4 autonomous driving technology into Dubai's multimodal transport ecosystem, working toward the emirate's ambitious goal of having autonomous vehicles account for 25% of all trips by 2030. The collaboration includes seamless integration with Dubai's existing metro, tram, and marine transit routes, positioning robotaxis as the critical first-mile and last-mile connectivity solution.
Dubai's Director General Mattar Al Tayer praised Pony.ai's decision to choose Dubai as its international expansion base, emphasizing how the partnership supports the city's broader smart city and digital transformation strategy.
Meanwhile, WeRide demonstrated its European expansion strategy by hosting a high-profile delegation from Germany. In a LinkedIn post, the company revealed they welcomed representatives led by Dr. Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut, Minister of Economic Affairs, Labour and Tourism of Baden-Württemberg, along with senior leaders from mobility providers, public transport operators, and vehicle manufacturers. During the visit, WeRide shared its growth plans for Germany and explored potential collaboration opportunities in autonomous mobility and smart transport infrastructure.
Source: WeRide, LinkedIN
In the post, WeRide made their German ambitions explicit, writing: "Building on our existing operations across Europe, including France and Switzerland, WeRide is ready to bring its autonomous driving expertise to Germany. We look forward to partnering with policymakers and industry leaders to co-develop smart mobility solutions tailored to local needs and shape the future of autonomous transportation together." This represents a clear signal that after establishing operations in France and Switzerland, Germany—specifically the automotive heartland of Baden-Württemberg—could be next on WeRide's European expansion list.
The fact that this was specifically a Baden-Württemberg delegation is particularly interesting. As the home of Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and others, this region represents the center of German automotive innovation. It's also where UK-based Wayve is currently conducting European testing operations.
Perhaps I'll finally get those test rides I've been hoping for, whether in a WeRide vehicle or potentially even a Wayve test car, right here in Baden-Württemberg. I’m open for invites :D
The Chinese expansion story extends beyond robotaxis into adjacent autonomous vehicle markets. Baidu, through its Apollo autonomous driving platform, partnered with Chinese car rental giant CAR Inc. to launch what they're calling "the world's first autonomous driving rental product available to the public." This service allows individuals aged 18 and above to access a "fully autonomous + fully self-service" short-term rental experience using customized Apollo Go vehicles that can accommodate up to three passengers.
The rental process is streamlined: users place orders specifying pickup time and location, the system automatically matches them with the nearest available vehicle, the car autonomously drives to the designated pickup spot, users verify their identity to unlock the vehicle, and at journey's end, the car automatically returns to the specified return location. Pricing remains consistent with CAR Inc.'s traditional short-term rental products, with flexible booking options ranging from 4 hours to 7 days. During the rental period, users can flexibly adjust their itinerary within the designated operational area. The number of deployed AVs hasn’t been disclosed.
However, several intriguing questions remain about this autonomous rental model. The current restriction to three passengers means the front seats cannot be used, creating space utilization challenges compared to traditional rental vehicles at the same price point. More fundamentally, there's an open regulatory question about whether renters still need valid driver's licenses when renting fully autonomous vehicles—a policy question that could significantly impact the addressable market and operational framework for this new business model.
My Take: China's international expansion strategy exploits a critical timing advantage while US companies remain domestically focused. By establishing operational footholds in regulatory-friendly markets like Dubai and building relationships in automotive centers like Germany, Chinese companies are positioning themselves as global alternatives before US competitors begin serious international expansion. The autonomous rental model represents novel business model innovation that could expand beyond traditional robotaxi use cases.
🔗 Reuters / Gasgoo / Car News China / WeRide
💡 Quick Takes:
📱 May Mobility launches ride-hail API
May Mobility launched its Ride-Hail Integration API, enabling seamless connectivity with global ride-hail platforms. The company will launch with Lyft in Atlanta this summer and Uber in Arlington, TX later this year—making it the only US AV company deploying on both major platforms in 2025.
🚚 FERNRIDE becomes first in EU to certify autonomous terminal truck
FERNRIDE achieved TÜV SÜD certification for autonomous terminal tractors in Estonia, becoming the first company to receive EU Machinery Directive compliance for industrial AV operations. The certification enables driverless operations at HHLA's Estonia terminal with one operator managing up to four vehicles
🔗 Tech.eu
🚌 Karsan launches autonomous buses in Paris & Rotterdam
Karsan launched two autonomous bus deployments powered by ADASTEC software. A six-month passenger service on Paris route 393 starting September 2025, and the world's first autonomous airport bus service connecting Rotterdam Airport to Meijersplein Metro Station. These deployments demonstrate European regulatory openness to autonomous public transit solutions.
🔗 Sustainable Bus (1) / Sustainable Bus (2)
🏜️Abu Dhabi begins Level 4 AV tests in Masdar City
Abu Dhabi began Level 4 autonomous vehicle testing in Masdar City, following a comprehensive 2.4km route connecting key locations. The initiative, overseen by the Integrated Transport Centre, will transition from safety officer oversight to fully autonomous operation from a centralized control room. This supports the UAE's broader smart mobility strategy.
📚 Worth Reading:
: "What I learned watching 78 videos from Tesla's Austin robotaxis" Timothy’s analysis provides crucial context for evaluating Tesla's robotaxi progress. By examining both positive and negative videos from Tesla's limited Austin deployment, Lee offers a balanced assessment of the technology's current capabilities and limitations.
📊 Weekly Performance
Note: Stock performance data as of July 13, 2025. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
Thanks for reading!
If you found value in this newsletter, please consider sharing it with a friend or colleague who might benefit from these insights.
And if you haven't already, subscribe to stay updated on the latest developments in the autonomous driving industry